Cloud Strategy

The Challenge of Predicting Cloud Costs

For a CFO monitoring company finances, asking the IT Director for the annual cloud budget can feel like asking "how long is a piece of string." Underutilised servers and carelessly stored data have made the cloud an expensive way to run IT infrastructure — here's why, and what to do about it.

UK-based specialists Trading since 1994 Hybrid & On-Premise Specialists

Are Businesses Considering Bringing IT Back In-House?

An increasing number of enterprises are moving data and services from public cloud platforms back to on-premises infrastructure — a process commonly called cloud repatriation. This movement has gained real traction recently, as companies reassess their approach to cloud usage.

Key Drivers Behind Cloud Repatriation

Cost management

Unpredictable usage patterns and data egress fees can drive up cloud costs significantly — bringing workloads back in-house can restore cost control and stability.

Performance optimisation

Applications demanding minimal latency or high processing speed — especially those handling large data volumes — often perform better on dedicated on-premise hardware.

Data privacy & compliance

Strict data protection regulation requires increased oversight of how data is stored and handled — on-premise storage can streamline adherence to rules like GDPR.

Security concerns

Some organisations prefer the direct oversight on-premise infrastructure provides, reducing reliance on third-party cloud providers.

Avoiding vendor lock-in

Relying solely on one cloud provider can restrict flexibility — repatriation gives businesses room to vary their infrastructure and avoid potential limitations.

"A 2024 Barclays CIO survey found 83% of enterprise CIOs planned to repatriate at least some workloads to on-premises or colocation data centres — up from 43% in 2020."Barclays CIO Survey, 2024 — widely corroborated, including by IDC and Citrix survey data on the same trend

Companies including Dropbox and Adobe have both undertaken cloud repatriation to gain better control over cost and performance.

Considerations for Cloud Repatriation

Infrastructure investment

Moving back to on-premises involves real financial commitment — hardware, facilities, and personnel with specialised skills.

Operational complexity

Managing on-premise infrastructure requires strong internal IT capability and resource to handle the added operational complexity.

Hybrid solutions

Most organisations land on a hybrid model, combining cloud and on-premise systems for a balance of flexibility and control.

Weighing up whether repatriation makes sense for your organisation? Talk to our team about the honest cost comparison.

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Trying to Control Cloud Costs

Predicting cloud costs can range from straightforward to highly complex, depending on the scope of your environment:

1. Setting up

Single VMs or basic storage are easy to estimate. Complex multi-service deployments — containers, databases, AI services, serverless — are far harder.

2. Usage trends

Fixed-pattern workloads (always-on VMs, steady storage) are simple to manage. Dynamic workloads — serverless functions, auto-scaling, batch processing — are much harder to predict.

3. Regional price variations

Providers price differently by region — UK costs can differ substantially from the US or Asia, complicating budget planning.

4. Data transfer expenses

Minimal within one region, but can rise significantly for large outbound traffic volumes, inter-region transfers, or hybrid cloud environments.

5. Hidden or additional costs

Watch for API call charges on serverless/storage services, licensing fees for databases or operating systems, and monitoring/management tool costs.

6. Discounts & pricing models

On-demand pricing, reserved instances, spot pricing, savings plans, and hybrid benefit schemes all need factoring in.

7. Application lifecycle

Dev/test environments are simple to cost. Production environments — needing uptime, redundancy, backups, and DR — are far more complex.

8. Tools & resources

Provider calculators like AWS Calculator or Azure Pricing Calculator help, but rarely account for networking limitations or scaling intricacies.

What Makes This Such a Challenging Task?

Cloud pricing models involve numerous SKUs per service, each priced differently. Add the potential for unexpected workload spikes, and usage-based billing that makes cost prediction genuinely difficult without precise usage patterns already in hand, and it's easy to see why "how long is a piece of string" is such an apt comparison.

Helpful Pointers for Accurate Forecasting

1

Assess your workload

Thoroughly evaluate your computing, storage, and data transfer requirements before committing to anything.

2

Use cloud cost calculators

Take advantage of provider tools such as the Azure Pricing Calculator as a starting point.

3

Keep an eye on usage

Use monitoring and alert systems to track and anticipate ongoing expenses before they become surprises.

4

Seek expert guidance

For intricate setups, professional input on cost optimisation and prediction can pay for itself quickly.

5

Start small

Begin with a modest deployment and adjust based on the costs and performance you actually observe.

Combining meticulous preparation, reliable tools, and consistent monitoring will greatly improve your ability to forecast cloud costs accurately.

Summary

Alongside repatriation of software and services, our article on data centre miniaturisation covers the falling price and shrinking footprint that's making it practical for businesses to bring some applications and storage back on-premise again.

Cloud computing still offers real benefits — but more companies are now reassessing their individual requirements, and in many cases, bringing certain workloads back on-site makes better financial and operational sense than staying all-in on cloud.

Not Sure What Your Cloud Costs Should Actually Look Like?

Tell us about your current cloud setup and we'll help you work out where repatriation or a hybrid approach might save real money.

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